35 races · 65 seats not up · Election Day Nov 3, 2026

Senate

Updated Oct 11, 2026 · 5:23 pm ET

Last updatedOct 11, 2026 · 5:23 pm ET

Preliminary · 120th Congress51 for majority

D43

TOSSUP10

R45

43 D + 2 I + 10 Tossup + 45 R = 100 seats

Current split119th Congress, now: D 45I 2R 53
Preliminary: D 43I 2T 10R 45
No-tossupEvery race called: D 48I 2R 50
Final14 not yet final: D 41I 2R 43

At 50–50 the Vice President (currently a Republican) breaks the tie. Every row includes the 65 seats not up this year.

Preliminary forecast · 120th Congress51 seats for a majority

D · Democrats43

I · Ind.2

T · Tossup10

R · Republicans45

43 D + 2 I + 10 Tossup + 45 R = 100 seats

Current split119th Congress, now · I 2: D 45, I 2, 53 R
PreliminaryI 2: D 43, I 2, T 10, 45 R
No-tossupEvery race called · I 2: D 48, I 2, 50 R
Final14 not yet final · I 2: D 41, I 2, Not yet final 14, 43 R

At 50–50 the Vice President (currently a Republican) breaks the tie. Every row includes the 65 seats not up this year.

How to read thisShow

119th · D: Party holding the seat in the current 119th Congress. All forecasts are for the 120th Congress, elected Nov 3.
Final: Permanent call. Made once, locked, never changed. The date shows when it was locked.
Preliminary: Current view of the race. Can change at any time. Can be a Tossup.
No-tossup: If I had to pick with no toss-ups allowed. Same as Preliminary unless that is a Tossup.
: Author's confidence right now: 1 low, 2 medium, 3 high.
Harris · Trump: The 2024 presidential vote in the state. Hover or tap it for 2020.

DDemocratRRepublicanIIndependentTTossup

How to read thisShow

Every race gets three calls instead of Solid/Likely/Lean ratings.

119th · D: Party holding the seat in the current 119th Congress. All forecasts are for the 120th Congress, elected Nov 3.
Final: Permanent call. Made once, locked, never changed. The date shows when it was locked.
Preliminary: Current view of the race. Can change at any time. Can be a Tossup.
No-tossup: If I had to pick with no toss-ups allowed. Same as Preliminary unless that is a Tossup.
: Author's confidence right now: 1 low, 2 medium, 3 high.
Harris · Trump: The 2024 presidential vote in the state. Hover or tap it for 2020.

DDemocratRRepublicanIIndependentTTossup

Races to watch

Dem Targets

6seats

No-tossup calls: 3 Dem3 Rep
Final calls: 0 Dem0 Rep6 not yet final

North Carolina

119th · R

Thom TillisOpen seat

Harris: 48%Trump: 51%

FinalNot yet final

Prelim.PreliminaryTossup

No-tossupD

Confidence

Maine

119th · R

Susan Collins

Harris: 52%Trump: 45%

FinalNot yet final

Prelim.PreliminaryTossup

No-tossupR

Confidence

Alaska

119th · R

Dan Sullivan

Harris: 41%Trump: 55%

FinalNot yet final

Prelim.PreliminaryTossup

No-tossupD

Confidence

Kansas

119th · R

Roger Marshall

Harris: 41%Trump: 57%

FinalNot yet final

Prelim.PreliminaryTossup

No-tossupR

Confidence

Ohio

119th · R

Jon HustedSpecial

Harris: 44%Trump: 55%

FinalNot yet final

Prelim.PreliminaryTossup

No-tossupR

Confidence

Texas

119th · R

John CornynOpen seat

Harris: 42%Trump: 56%

FinalNot yet final

Prelim.PreliminaryTossup

No-tossupD

Confidence

Unsafe GOP Seats

4seats

No-tossup calls: 0 Dem4 Rep
Final calls: 0 Dem0 Rep4 not yet final

Nebraska

119th · R

Pete Ricketts

Harris: 39%Trump: 59%

FinalNot yet final

Prelim.PreliminaryTossup

No-tossupR

Confidence

Florida

119th · R

Ashley MoodySpecial

Harris: 43%Trump: 56%

FinalNot yet final

Prelim.PreliminaryR

No-tossupR

Confidence

South Carolina

119th · R

Darline Graham

Harris: 40%Trump: 58%

FinalNot yet final

Prelim.PreliminaryR

No-tossupR

Confidence

Iowa

119th · R

Joni ErnstOpen seat

Harris: 43%Trump: 56%

FinalNot yet final

Prelim.PreliminaryTossup

No-tossupR

Confidence

Unsafe Dem Seats

4seats

No-tossup calls: 4 Dem0 Rep
Final calls: 0 Dem0 Rep4 not yet final

Georgia

119th · D

Jon Ossoff

Harris: 49%Trump: 51%

FinalNot yet final

Prelim.PreliminaryD

No-tossupD

Confidence

Michigan

119th · D

Gary PetersOpen seat

Harris: 48%Trump: 50%

FinalNot yet final

Prelim.PreliminaryTossup

No-tossupD

Confidence

Minnesota

119th · D

Tina SmithOpen seat

Harris: 51%Trump: 47%

FinalNot yet final

Prelim.PreliminaryD

No-tossupD

Confidence

New Hampshire

119th · D

Jeanne ShaheenOpen seat

Harris: 51%Trump: 48%

FinalNot yet final

Prelim.PreliminaryTossup

No-tossupD

Confidence

Other races

21 races

District	119th	Incumbent	Harris · Trump	Preliminary	No-tossup	Final
Alabama	R	Tommy TubervilleOpen seat	34 · 65 (2020: Biden 37% Trump 62%)	R	R	ROct 11
Arkansas	R	Tom Cotton	34 · 64 (2020: Biden 35% Trump 62%)	R	R	ROct 11
Colorado	D	John Hickenlooper	54 · 43 (2020: Biden 55% Trump 42%)	D	D	DOct 11
Delaware	D	Chris Coons	57 · 42 (2020: Biden 59% Trump 40%)	D	D	DOct 11
Idaho	R	Jim Risch	30 · 67 (2020: Biden 33% Trump 64%)	R	R	ROct 11
Illinois	D	Dick DurbinOpen seat	54 · 43 (2020: Biden 58% Trump 41%)	D	D	DOct 11
Kentucky	R	Mitch McConnellOpen seat	34 · 64 (2020: Biden 36% Trump 62%)	R	R	ROct 11
Louisiana	R	Bill CassidyOpen seat	38 · 60 (2020: Biden 40% Trump 58%)	R	R	ROct 11
Massachusetts	D	Ed Markey	61 · 36 (2020: Biden 66% Trump 32%)	D	D	DOct 11
Mississippi	R	Cindy Hyde-Smith	38 · 61 (2020: Biden 41% Trump 58%)	R	R	ROct 11
Montana	R	Steve DainesOpen seat	38 · 58 (2020: Biden 41% Trump 57%)	R	R	ROct 11
New Jersey	D	Cory Booker	52 · 46 (2020: Biden 57% Trump 41%)	D	D	DOct 11
New Mexico	D	Ben Ray Luján	52 · 46 (2020: Biden 54% Trump 44%)	D	D	DOct 11
Oklahoma	R	Alan ArmstrongOpen seat	32 · 66 (2020: Biden 32% Trump 65%)	R	R	ROct 11
Oregon	D	Jeff Merkley	55 · 41 (2020: Biden 56% Trump 40%)	D	D	DOct 11
Rhode Island	D	Jack Reed	56 · 42 (2020: Biden 59% Trump 39%)	D	D	DOct 11
South Dakota	R	Mike Rounds	34 · 63 (2020: Biden 36% Trump 62%)	R	R	ROct 11
Tennessee	R	Bill Hagerty	34 · 64 (2020: Biden 37% Trump 61%)	R	R	ROct 11
Virginia	D	Mark Warner	52 · 46 (2020: Biden 54% Trump 44%)	D	D	DOct 11
West Virginia	R	Shelley Moore Capito	28 · 70 (2020: Biden 30% Trump 69%)	R	R	ROct 11
Wyoming	R	Cynthia LummisOpen seat	26 · 72 (2020: Biden 27% Trump 70%)	R	R	ROct 11

RAlabamaTommy TubervilleRRROct 11
119th Congress: Republican · Open seat2024: Harris 34% Trump 65% · 2020: Biden 37% Trump 62%No comment.
RArkansasTom CottonRRROct 11
119th Congress: Republican2024: Harris 34% Trump 64% · 2020: Biden 35% Trump 62%No comment.
DColoradoJohn HickenlooperDDDOct 11
119th Congress: Democrat2024: Harris 54% Trump 43% · 2020: Biden 55% Trump 42%No comment.
DDelawareChris CoonsDDDOct 11
119th Congress: Democrat2024: Harris 57% Trump 42% · 2020: Biden 59% Trump 40%No comment.
RIdahoJim RischRRROct 11
119th Congress: Republican2024: Harris 30% Trump 67% · 2020: Biden 33% Trump 64%No comment.
DIllinoisDick DurbinDDDOct 11
119th Congress: Democrat · Open seat2024: Harris 54% Trump 43% · 2020: Biden 58% Trump 41%No comment.
RKentuckyMitch McConnellRRROct 11
119th Congress: Republican · Open seat2024: Harris 34% Trump 64% · 2020: Biden 36% Trump 62%No comment.
RLouisianaBill CassidyRRROct 11
119th Congress: Republican · Open seat2024: Harris 38% Trump 60% · 2020: Biden 40% Trump 58%No comment.
DMassachusettsEd MarkeyDDDOct 11
119th Congress: Democrat2024: Harris 61% Trump 36% · 2020: Biden 66% Trump 32%No comment.
RMississippiCindy Hyde-SmithRRROct 11
119th Congress: Republican2024: Harris 38% Trump 61% · 2020: Biden 41% Trump 58%No comment.
RMontanaSteve DainesRRROct 11
119th Congress: Republican · Open seat2024: Harris 38% Trump 58% · 2020: Biden 41% Trump 57%No comment.
DNew JerseyCory BookerDDDOct 11
119th Congress: Democrat2024: Harris 52% Trump 46% · 2020: Biden 57% Trump 41%No comment.
DNew MexicoBen Ray LujánDDDOct 11
119th Congress: Democrat2024: Harris 52% Trump 46% · 2020: Biden 54% Trump 44%No comment.
ROklahomaAlan ArmstrongRRROct 11
119th Congress: Republican · Open seat2024: Harris 32% Trump 66% · 2020: Biden 32% Trump 65%No comment.
DOregonJeff MerkleyDDDOct 11
119th Congress: Democrat2024: Harris 55% Trump 41% · 2020: Biden 56% Trump 40%No comment.
DRhode IslandJack ReedDDDOct 11
119th Congress: Democrat2024: Harris 56% Trump 42% · 2020: Biden 59% Trump 39%No comment.
RSouth DakotaMike RoundsRRROct 11
119th Congress: Republican2024: Harris 34% Trump 63% · 2020: Biden 36% Trump 62%No comment.
RTennesseeBill HagertyRRROct 11
119th Congress: Republican2024: Harris 34% Trump 64% · 2020: Biden 37% Trump 61%No comment.
DVirginiaMark WarnerDDDOct 11
119th Congress: Democrat2024: Harris 52% Trump 46% · 2020: Biden 54% Trump 44%No comment.
RWest VirginiaShelley Moore CapitoRRROct 11
119th Congress: Republican2024: Harris 28% Trump 70% · 2020: Biden 30% Trump 69%No comment.
RWyomingCynthia LummisRRROct 11
119th Congress: Republican · Open seat2024: Harris 26% Trump 72% · 2020: Biden 27% Trump 70%No comment.